Black Friday vs Prime Day vs Memorial Day: Which Sale Event Has the Lowest Prices?

Overview

For many shoppers, black friday vs prime day is treated like a simple contest. In practice, it is more useful to think in categories.

Each sale event tends to favor different types of purchases:

• Black Friday is often the broadest event. It is the one most likely to matter when you are comparing many retailers at once, watching doorbuster-style pricing, and trying to find the best sale event for electronics, gifts, home goods, and major seasonal markdowns.
• Prime Day is usually strongest when marketplace competition is active, when a retailer pushes its own devices or high-volume electronics, and when fast-moving flash sales create short windows for excellent prices.
• Memorial Day tends to be especially relevant for warm-weather categories, home refresh purchases, and certain large household items. It may not be as broad as Black Friday, but it can be a strong period for specific needs.

That means the answer to which shopping holiday is best depends less on the event name and more on four practical questions:

1. What category are you buying?
2. How price-sensitive are you?
3. Can you wait for a later event?
4. Can you reduce the total further with stacking, shipping thresholds, or price matching?

A shopper buying a TV, a patio set, and skin care will not necessarily get the lowest prices during the same weekend. Even within one category, the lowest advertised price is not always the lowest final cost after shipping, warranties, accessories, and promo restrictions are included.

As a rule of thumb, use these event tendencies:

• Black Friday: best for wide retailer competition, giftable products, TVs, laptops, gaming, kitchenware, and broad comparison shopping.
• Prime Day: best for marketplace-driven discounts, Amazon ecosystem products, accessories, everyday tech, impulse buys, and short-lived flash sales.
• Memorial Day: best for mattresses, furniture, appliances, outdoor living, seasonal home goods, and early summer purchases.

Those are not guarantees. They are starting assumptions you can test using the calculator-style method below.

How to estimate

The easiest way to compare lowest prices sale holidays is to stop asking, “Which event has the biggest discount?” and start asking, “Which event has the lowest all-in cost for my purchase?”

Use this repeatable formula:

Estimated final cost = item price - instant discount - promo code savings - rewards value - cashback value + shipping + required add-ons + tax impact from extras

Not every part will apply to every order, but this framework keeps you from overvaluing a headline percentage.

Step 1: Start with your target price

Pick the normal price range you are willing to pay. If you are shopping a laptop, for example, do not compare every laptop on sale. Compare the specific performance tier, storage size, screen size, or model family you actually want. The more precise your target, the more useful your comparison becomes.

Step 2: Assign likely event strength by category

Give each event a simple score for your category:

• 3 points: historically strong fit for the category
• 2 points: decent chance of competitive pricing
• 1 point: possible discounts, but not the most favorable event

For example, if you are buying a TV, Black Friday might score a 3, Prime Day a 2 or 3 depending on brand and retailer competition, and Memorial Day a 1 or 2. If you are buying patio furniture, Memorial Day may score highest.

Step 3: Estimate stackable savings

This is where many shoppers leave money on the table. A smaller sale can beat a larger one if you can combine it with:

• Store rewards
• Credit card offers
• Cashback portals
• First-order discounts
• Free shipping code offers
• Loyalty redemption
• Price match adjustments

If you need help deciding whether to use cashback or a discount code, see Cashback vs Coupon Codes: Which Saves More at Checkout?. If you regularly combine savings, our guide to Coupon Stacking Rules by Store: Where You Can Combine Promo Codes, Cashback, and Rewards is a useful companion.

Step 4: Add timing costs

The “best” sale event can still be the wrong choice if waiting creates a cost for you. Ask:

• Do you need the item before the next major event?
• Will the newer model launch soon and affect prices?
• Is there a seasonal need, such as outdoor furniture before summer?
• Will stock shortages force you into a worse replacement later?

When waiting has a real cost, assign that cost a number. Even a rough estimate helps. If postponing a mattress purchase means another three months of poor sleep, you may reasonably prefer a good Memorial Day price over a slightly better Black Friday price.

Step 5: Compare all-in outcomes, not marketing labels

At the end, write down one line for each event:

• Expected base sale price
• Expected extra savings
• Expected total checkout cost
• Confidence level
• Best fit for urgency

This turns event shopping into a decision rather than a guess.

Inputs and assumptions

To make your estimate more accurate, use consistent inputs. You do not need perfect data. You need realistic assumptions.

1. Product category

The category matters more than the event headline. Broadly speaking:

• Electronics: often strongest around Black Friday and Prime Day, especially if multiple retailers compete.
• Appliances: can be strong during holiday weekends like Memorial Day, but model cycles also matter. For more detail, read Best Months to Buy Appliances: Price Trends for Refrigerators, Washers, Dryers, and Dishwashers.
• Furniture and mattresses: often associated with long-weekend promotions including Memorial Day.
• Everyday household items: often fit Prime Day-style marketplace discounts well.
• Giftable items and toys: Black Friday may be more useful because more retailers compete in the same timeframe.

2. Retailer mix

If you are willing to shop only one marketplace, Prime Day may matter more. If you compare major chains, warehouse clubs, department stores, brand sites, and marketplaces together, Black Friday often becomes more powerful because the field is larger.

Retailer flexibility also affects the final price. A store with price matching may narrow the gap between events. Our guide to Price Match Policies Compared: Which Retailers Actually Honor Lower Prices? can help you factor that in.

3. Shipping and pickup costs

A low product price is less impressive once shipping is added. Some events promote free delivery more aggressively than others, and some retailers set a minimum order threshold that can tempt you to overspend. Before deciding an event is cheaper, check whether you can qualify efficiently. See Free Shipping Minimums by Store: The Cheapest Way to Qualify Without Overspending.

4. Eligibility discounts

Student, teacher, military, and senior offers are easy to overlook during major sale events. Sometimes they stack with public sales, and sometimes they do not. If you qualify for any of them, include that in your assumptions. A quick reference is Student, Teacher, Military, and Senior Discounts: Where to Check Before You Buy.

5. New customer offers

For some shoppers, a smaller event with a first-order code can beat a famous sale event. If you are buying from a new store, compare the holiday price against a new-customer discount. This matters especially for apparel, beauty, and direct-to-consumer brands. Related reading: Best First-Order Discounts by Store: Where New Customers Save the Most.

6. Item condition

If your goal is simply the best price, not necessarily a factory-sealed item, holiday timing is only part of the answer. Open-box, refurbished, and outlet inventory can outperform standard event discounts in some categories. See Outlet vs Refurbished vs Open Box: Which Option Gives the Best Price?.

7. Your tolerance for risk and speed

Prime Day deals can move quickly and disappear. Black Friday may offer more alternative retailers if a product sells out. Memorial Day promotions may feel less frantic in certain categories. If you prefer slower comparison shopping, account for that. The best price is less useful if you cannot realistically catch it.

Worked examples

These examples use assumptions, not live prices. The goal is to show how to think about memorial day vs black friday deals and Prime Day comparisons in a repeatable way.

Example 1: Buying a TV

Need: midrange TV, flexible timing, willing to compare several retailers.

Event fit estimate:

• Black Friday: 3
• Prime Day: 2 or 3
• Memorial Day: 1

Reasoning: TVs often benefit from broad retailer competition, aggressive seasonal promotions, and accessory bundles. Black Friday usually gives you the widest field to compare. Prime Day can still matter, especially if comparable retailers respond or if marketplace sellers cut prices. Memorial Day is less likely to be your first choice unless you find a very specific model at a strong markdown.

Best decision: If you can wait, Black Friday is often the default window to monitor first. If a compelling Prime Day price appears and the model matches your target exactly, take the all-in cost seriously rather than assuming Black Friday will automatically beat it. For more category timing, visit Best Time to Buy Electronics: Annual Sale Calendar for TVs, Laptops, Phones, and More.

Example 2: Buying a mattress

Need: new mattress before summer, brand flexibility, delivery matters.

Event fit estimate:

• Memorial Day: 3
• Black Friday: 2
• Prime Day: 1 or 2

Reasoning: Memorial Day is widely associated with home and furnishing promotions. Since mattress purchases often involve delivery, setup, returns, and financing offers, you need to compare the package value, not just the list price.

Best decision: If you need the item for near-term use, Memorial Day may be the strongest practical choice. If you do not need it urgently, Black Friday is still worth tracking, but the advantage may be smaller once timing and delivery value are considered.

Example 3: Buying small household essentials and accessories

Need: multiple lower-cost items, no brand loyalty, comfortable with marketplace shopping.

Event fit estimate:

• Prime Day: 3
• Black Friday: 2
• Memorial Day: 1

Reasoning: This is where short-lived marketplace discounts, lightning-style promotions, and bulk ordering can matter most. Prime Day is often useful when your basket includes charging accessories, kitchen gadgets, storage items, and household basics.

Best decision: Use Prime Day if you are organized. Build a list in advance, set a maximum spend, and compare unit pricing so that bundled discounts do not hide higher per-item costs.

Example 4: Buying outdoor furniture

Need: patio set before peak summer.

Event fit estimate:

• Memorial Day: 3
• Black Friday: 1
• Prime Day: 1 or 2

Reasoning: Seasonal relevance matters. Buying outdoor furniture in late spring can be more practical than waiting for late-year events that miss the useful season. Black Friday may eventually bring markdowns on remaining inventory, but that does not help much if your goal is to use the item during summer.

Best decision: Memorial Day is usually the event to monitor first, especially if local pickup or shipping lead times are important.

Example 5: Buying a gaming monitor on a tight budget

Need: value-focused electronics purchase, open to standout limited deals.

Reasoning: Budget electronics can appear at any major event, but model-specific opportunities often matter more than the holiday name. If your goal is simply to catch a strong sub-$100 or sub-$150 deal, it pays to track product-level drops. For a model-focused example, see Budget Gamers’ Monitor Hunt: Why the 24" LG UltraGear 1080p 144Hz Under $100 Is a Can’t-Miss.

Best decision: Use the event calendar as a guide, but stay flexible. A single sharp price drop can outperform the average holiday pattern.

When to recalculate

You should revisit this comparison whenever the inputs change, not just when a new sale event arrives.

Recalculate when:

• Your target product changes. A different model or brand can shift which event is strongest.
• Retailer policies change. Price matching, shipping thresholds, and coupon exclusions can materially affect the total.
• You gain a new stacking option. A first-order code, a store reward, or a better cashback offer can change the winning event.
• Your timing changes. If a purchase becomes urgent, the best future event may stop being the best real option.
• Inventory becomes limited. Stock pressure can reduce your ability to wait for a theoretical better sale.
• New model releases approach. Product cycle shifts can matter as much as holiday timing.

Here is a practical checklist to use before any major sale:

1. Write down the exact item or category you want.
2. List Black Friday, Prime Day, and Memorial Day as separate options.
3. Estimate the likely sale strength for your category.
4. Add any promo code, discount code, free shipping code, rewards, or cashback possibilities.
5. Include shipping, pickup, accessories, and tax-sensitive extras.
6. Assign a cost to waiting if the purchase is not purely optional.
7. Choose the event with the lowest realistic total, not the biggest advertised percentage.

The short answer is this: if you want broad competition and many categories, Black Friday is often the most versatile benchmark. If you want marketplace-driven tech and household deals, Prime Day can be the sharper event. If you want home, outdoor, mattress, and early summer purchases, Memorial Day may be the more practical winner. The best event is the one that gives you the lowest all-in price for the item you actually need, at the moment you need it.

Keep this framework handy and update it before each major shopping season. That is the easiest way to turn recurring sale hype into a repeatable savings habit.